Teslas self-driving effort could be worth more than double its EV division

Published: Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 11:50 pm

Tesla's Robotaxi Ambitions Could Dwarf EV Business, According to BofA Analysis

Bank of America (BofA) analyst Perry has issued a positive outlook on Tesla, suggesting the company's future value lies significantly in its autonomous driving initiatives. The analysis indicates that Tesla's robotaxi business could be worth more than double its electric vehicle (EV) division.

BofA estimates the robotaxi division's equity value at $422 billion, making it the most valuable segment of the company. The Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is valued at $313 billion, bringing the combined value of these autonomous driving ventures to $735 billion. In contrast, Tesla's core EV division is valued at $345 billion.

Tesla currently operates a ride-hailing service in two cities and plans to expand to at least seven more by 2026. The company is utilizing a camera-only technology stack, which BofA believes is more cost-effective than competitors like Waymo. BofA projects Tesla's cost per mile at $1.58, significantly lower than the $3.41 per mile assigned to ride-sharing companies. The analysis also anticipates adjusted earnings of 56 cents per mile for Tesla, exceeding the 36 cents per mile for ride-sharing services.

However, the success of Tesla's robotaxi ambitions hinges on the adoption of its FSD technology. Currently, only 1.1 million customers have purchased FSD, a small percentage of Tesla's total vehicle sales. BofA's analysis assumes 8.7 million FSD customers by 2030, a target that requires Tesla to attract more subscribers. Tesla is also seeking to expand FSD availability to more countries, including China and Europe.

In addition to robotaxis and FSD, BofA values Tesla's energy business at $90 billion and its humanoid robots at $32 billion.

BNN's Perspective:

While the potential of Tesla's robotaxi and FSD ventures is undeniable, the company faces significant hurdles. Achieving widespread adoption of FSD and securing regulatory approvals in key markets like China and Europe are crucial for realizing the projected valuations. The success of these initiatives will ultimately determine whether Tesla can truly revolutionize the transportation landscape.

Keywords: Tesla, robotaxi, Full Self-Driving, FSD, electric vehicles, EV, Bank of America, BofA, autonomous driving, ride-hailing, Perry, stock, valuation, Musk, China, Europe

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