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Political success gives an average person a good life, I don't see it Mr Hunt

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There is clearly a desire among politicians of Jeremy Hunt's ilk to pretend the last decade of Brexit and Trump didn't happen and return to the never-ending globalist Blairism that is their comfort zone. Hunt's steady-as-she-goes budget couldn't underline this more heavily.
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The world the Blairites built however was an irreality, a ponzi scheme fuelled by debt that briefly shielded us from the harsh realities of the world.
That illusion collapsed in 2008 with devastating results, and whether through economic hardship at home or chaotic events abroad, the years after have brought most of the world back to harsh reality.
To succeed in a world of harsh realities Britain must take ruthless advantage of its newly found independence, rather than doubling down on the Davos-inspired policies we followed whilst in the EU.
The public have moved on - even if the major political parties haven't. They want a vision for fundamental change.
Hunt's is a budget for calm seas delivered in the eye of a storm. We need radical reform rather than carry on regardless.
He is relying on the changing winds of global markets doing most of the work and halving inflation, but he has done nothing to effect that change other than standing by, and those winds can change direction at any time.
As he gave his speech a new banking crisis was brewing plummeting global markets, and Britain's debt-ridden low productivity economy is extremely vulnerable to any global contagion.
Unless the Tories are radical and bold they will lose the election heavily, says Ben Harris-Quinney
(Image: PA)
Many have noted Hunt's budget came across as far more assured than the Kwarteng budget, and in presentational terms that is unquestionably true.
Truss and Kwarteng were however right in one regard, without significant change, change the public have been clamouring for years, Britain is sleepwalking into terminal decline. In the short term carrying on, as usual, may seem steadier, but it guarantees disaster.
Truss made many political errors, but her economic error was to slightly cut taxes, without significantly cutting Government spending. That is what has long been required, and why the markets were spooked.
The Conservatives came in in 2010 promising to get the debt and deficit under control, many don't realise that they have actually tripled that national debt in 13 years.
It has left Britain mortgaged to the hilt, with no contingency against future recessions or unexpected events, in a world proliferating them.
The Bow Group predicted at the height of the Tories poll numbers, when they were 10 points ahead of Labour rather than 20 points behind, that if they didn't address spending and debt there would be a catastrophe for them and the country.
So it has been. Years of profligate spending on projects with no measurable benefit like net zero, HS2 and international aid left the Government with the cupboards bare to cope with the fallout from the pandemic and their decision to take on the Ukraine conflict.
Topline growth alone also won't improve the lives of the public. Policymakers have an inexplicable obsession with GDP growth, whereas what matters to ordinary people is the standard of living.
The mass immigration era starting in the mid-90s grew the overall size of the economy but saw standards of living for most citizens stagnate and fall. The economy may be bigger, but we are all poorer. We have transitioned from a circumstance where most of the baby boomer generation could afford a family home, to one where most young people today cannot.
Hunt directly acknowledged in his speech that the public do not want an economy driven by cheap migrant labour, and he is therefore right to incentivise the increasing proportion of British people not working into work.
The OBR forecasts however that these measures will only encourage a few hundred thousand people back to work. This isn't insignificant, but it isn't revolutionary either.
It has become fashionable in the modern Conservative Party for everyone to declare themselves Thatcherites, regardless of belief or action. Sunak has loudly made this claim, but aside from individual policies, Thatcher's strength was taking a long rather than short-term view of economic planning.
For 13 years the Conservative Party has merely lurched from crisis to crisis hoping to paper over the cracks with fad quick-fix policies and failed to recognise the need and demand for long-term fundamental reform.
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We have recommended that the Government immediately cut 250 billion in spending from areas that don't benefit the public, to create a budget surplus that will see debt immediately fall and create room for significant spending to genuinely create a new economy. That means sacrificing some sacred cows like net zero, but the time for steady as she goes is long over, the choice is between radical change and doom.
The government then needs to focus on raising the standard of living rather than the size of the economy. Never-ending mass immigration and an ever-rising population is against the wishes of the public, unsustainable and detrimental to living standards.
A declining rather than ever-rising population would see standards of living rise, but to ensure smooth demographic transition, instead of relying on immigration, Government should also incentivise and make having a large family a rational and beneficial choice once again.
Hunt's childcare proposals are a good start but are nowhere near enough to suggest the Conservatives are genuine in wanting to switch from a mass immigration to pro-family model.
An economy prospers when an average person with an average job is able to have a good life. Regardless of rhetoric and excuses, successive Government choices have meant whilst that was true of baby boomer Britain, it isnt true of today's Britain.
The millennial generation down see property ownership and having a family as unviable, if Government can redirect focus and resources to make that viable again both their and the nation's fortunes will turn around.
Ronald Reagan famously called on people during the 1980 Presidental Debates to ask themselves, "do you feel better off than you did before the current government came in?" People find themselves with the highest tax burden since the war, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and in most cases with a far worst settlement than their parents.
Unless the Conservative Party is radical and bold they will lose the election heavily, as people conclude that regardless of whether there is officially a recession or not, they are much worse off.
Ben Harris-Quinney is chairman of the Bow Group, the world's oldest Conservativ

Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 10:58 am

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