Oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, IEA says
3 minute readPublished: Friday, November 14, 2025 at 4:05 pm
IEA Report: Oil and Gas Demand Could Persist Through 2050
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its annual World Energy Outlook, presenting a revised outlook on global energy demand. The report includes a "Current Policies Scenario" (CPS) that suggests oil and natural gas demand could continue to grow until 2050, a shift from previous expectations of a decline due to the adoption of green technologies.
Under the CPS, global oil demand is projected to reach 105 million barrels a day by 2035 and 113 million barrels a day by 2050, driven primarily by petrochemical feedstocks and aviation. This scenario anticipates a slowdown in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) after 2035, except in China and Europe, further fueling oil demand.
The IEA also presents a "Stated Policies Scenario" (STEPS), which considers a broader range of policies. In this scenario, oil demand peaks around 2030 at 102 million barrels a day before gradually declining. However, gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s, influenced by changes in U.S. policies and a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Both scenarios highlight the growth of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics. However, the pace of renewable adoption differs between the CPS and STEPS. The CPS anticipates slower growth due to grid integration challenges and the expiration of policy support. Despite renewable growth in both scenarios, the IEA warns that energy-related emissions will not be sufficiently reduced to mitigate climate risks. The CPS projects a nearly 3°C rise in global temperatures by 2100, exceeding the international target of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The report also emphasizes the importance of energy security, including the reliability of electricity grids, energy storage, and critical mineral supply chains. The IEA notes the concentration of critical mineral refining in China, highlighting the need for a focused approach to address energy security concerns.
BNN's Perspective: The IEA's updated outlook underscores the complex and evolving nature of the energy transition. While the growth of renewables is undeniable, the continued reliance on fossil fuels, particularly in the CPS, presents significant challenges for climate goals. Policymakers must carefully consider these scenarios and implement strategies that balance energy security with the urgent need to reduce emissions.
Keywords: Oil and gas demand, IEA, energy outlook, renewables, electric vehicles, climate change, energy security, fossil fuels, natural gas, LNG, energy transition, global temperatures, Current Policies Scenario, Stated Policies Scenario.