Next El Nio likely to push global temperatures to new highs

Published: Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 6:03 pm

Global Temperatures Poised to Surge, Exceeding Climate Thresholds

A new report from the United Nations projects a significant increase in global temperatures over the next five years, with a high probability of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will surpass this limit compared to pre-industrial levels.

The report highlights a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold, and an 86% chance that one of those years will break the record for the hottest year on Earth, which was set in 2024. The WMO projects each year between now and 2030 to be between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius warmer than the late 1800s.

Scientists attribute these rising temperatures to the continued burning of fossil fuels, leading to more extreme weather events. The report anticipates an overheating Arctic, warming nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit between now and 2030, and a dangerous drought in the Amazon, increasing the risk of wildfires. The report also forecasts the potential for more intense wildfires and food price shocks.

The projections are based on computer simulations using various climate models. The report also notes the likely influence of a strong El Niño, a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to persist and further elevate global temperatures.

BNN's Perspective:

While the report paints a concerning picture, it's crucial to remember that climate change is a complex issue. The projections underscore the urgent need for global cooperation and accelerated efforts to reduce emissions. While the report highlights the challenges ahead, it also serves as a call to action, emphasizing the importance of transitioning to sustainable energy sources and implementing effective climate adaptation strategies.

Tags: global warming, climate change, El Niño, extreme weather, temperature increase, Paris Agreement, WMO, Arctic warming, drought, wildfires, fossil fuels, climate projections, climate models, heat waves, floods, food prices, sea ice, Amazon, United Nations

Full Story