NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 preview: Favorite, underdog, top storylines

Published: Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 12:32 am

The NASCAR Cup Series gears up for its final road course test of the season this Sunday with the Toyota/Save Mart 350. This marks the 18th race of the regular season and promises significant storylines as drivers navigate the challenging circuit.

Shane van Gisbergen enters the event as the clear favorite, despite qualifying sixth. His dominant performance last season, where he led a remarkable 97 of 110 laps from the pole, solidifies his position. Following a disappointing outing at Naval Base Coronado, Sonoma represents a crucial opportunity for van Gisbergen, especially as he currently sits outside the provisional 16-driver "Chase" field. His weekend has already seen a positive start with a victory in Saturday's O'Reilly Auto Parts Series race, making him the driver to watch.

On the underdog front, Chris Buescher is emerging as a strong contender. Consistently performing and often overlooked, Buescher is currently seventh in the points standings. His recent steady performance in San Diego, securing points in both stages and a sixth-place finish, highlights his reliability. Buescher also boasts a previous road course victory at Watkins Glen in 2024, where he narrowly defeated van Gisbergen. His combination of road course prowess and a strong history at Sonoma, including three top-five finishes, positions him as a dark horse for the win.

Qualifying saw a dramatic conclusion as Ty Gibbs secured his third career Cup Series pole in the final moments. The session was not without its challenges, with drivers experiencing rear grip issues and incidents, including Bubba Wallace suffering significant nose damage. While Carson Hocevar appeared poised for a surprise pole, Gibbs ultimately delivered the fastest lap. Gibbs has a strong qualifying record at Sonoma, but his ability to convert this advantage into a top finish remains to be seen, given his limited top-10 results at the track.

The battle for the regular-season points lead intensifies between Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin. Reddick's once substantial lead has dwindled to just eight points following a recent slump, which included two finishes outside the top 25. In contrast, Hamlin has surged with a three-race winning streak. Despite qualifying 11th, Reddick's four career road course wins, compared to Hamlin's one, suggest he is well-positioned to respond to the recent adversity. His strong practice performance further indicates his potential to regain momentum.

Additionally, the second year of the In-Season Challenge is set to commence at Sonoma. This head-to-head, bracket-style competition features a diverse five-race schedule, culminating in a $1 million prize. The initial matchups promise intriguing rivalries as drivers compete across various track types.

BNN's Perspective:
The Toyota/Save Mart 350 presents a compelling mix of established favorites and rising contenders. Shane van Gisbergen's dominant past performance at Sonoma makes him a logical choice to win, but the unpredictable nature of NASCAR, especially on road courses, always leaves room for surprises. Chris Buescher's consistent form and road course pedigree make him a legitimate threat, while Ty Gibbs' qualifying speed at Sonoma warrants attention, though his race-day execution will be key. The intensifying points battle between Reddick and Hamlin adds another layer of intrigue, with this road course event offering a prime opportunity for Reddick to reassert his dominance. The In-Season Challenge's debut at Sonoma also injects a fresh competitive dynamic into the weekend.

Tags: NASCAR, Toyota/Save Mart 350, Sonoma Raceway, Shane van Gisbergen, Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, In-Season Challenge, road course, favorite, underdog, qualifying, points lead, Cup Series

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