Lebanons political impasse continues despite Iran-Saudi deal
Published On 21 Apr 2023
21 Apr 2023
Beirut, Lebanon As the recent China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal brought a glimmer of hope to the Middle East, it cast a shadow of doubt on Lebanon, where a months-long presidential vacuum has deepened the countrys institutional paralysis and worsened an economic crisis that has festered for years.
The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has had a detrimental effect on the stability of Lebanon, a small Mediterranean country whose ruling elite has long been aligned with foreign powers to maintain influence and economic stability.
An economic crisis that hit in 2019 saw the Lebanese pound lose more than 90 percent of its value, and the ruling class which has been widely blamed for the financial collapse failed to check the currencys free fall.
Meanwhile, the country has had no president and only a caretaker government since last year.
The Saudi-Iran agreement, which is set to lead to a full restoration of diplomatic ties between the two countries following a seven-year rupture, has the potential to remake the regional order.
Saudi Arabia has already pushed for Iran-ally Syrias reintegration into the Arab League, more than a decade after its suspension over President Bashar al-Assads brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests.
In Yemen, the deal appeared to have helped broker the release of hundreds of Iran-backed Houthi prisoners in Saudi Arabia, paving a potential path towards peace in the conflict-ridden country.
But the Saudi-Iran deal looks to be more stagnant in the face of presidential deadlock among Lebanons rival parliamentary blocs.
Unlike in Yemen, the Saudi-Iran deal will not reflect on Lebanons political reality in the foreseeable future, except in terms of preventing further escalations among local allies, Lebanese Environment Minister Nasser Yassin told Al Jazeera.
Resolving the dispute between the opposition on the one hand and Hezbollah and its allies on the other, requires a longstanding domestic dialogue that doesnt yet seem plausible, said Yassin, who was previously director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Relations.
A protest against the deteriorating economic situation at Riad al-Solh Square in Beirut in March [File: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters]
Presidential vacuum
Lebanon has had no head of state a position that by convention has to be held by a Maronite Christian since former President Michel Aouns term ended at the end of October.
The powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group and House Speaker Nabih Berris Amal Movement party which together constitute Lebanons Shia base announced last month their support for Christian politician Sleiman Frangieh.
Hezbollah and its allies have since pushed to impose Frangieh, but vehement opposition from the majority of the countrys Christian, Sunni and Druze political blocs has left him short of the 65 votes required to be elected in the 128-member legislature.
Foreign powers have also attempted to bring the deadlock to an end. In early February, mediators from the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, France, and Egypt met in Paris to discuss ways to resolve the presidential deadlock. The five-way summit laid out a plan to help guide the choice of Lebanons next head of state.
Yassin said the assistant foreign minister for regional affairs at the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Abdel Aziz Al-Khulaifi, discussed the issue of the presidency with various Lebanese officials during his visit to Beirut in early April and has continued to make headway in talking to various parties since.
In comments made earlier this month, Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Majed al-Ansari said Doha participated in the discussion over the possibility of finding a political solution, and Qatar had no specific agenda regarding Lebanon, except achieving [its] stability and prosperity.
Lebanons President Michel Aoun meets US Special Envoy for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon in 2021 [File: Dalati Nohra/Reuters]
Unwavering Shia position
According to a Hezbollah spokesman, Ibrahim Mousavi, the groups support for Frangieh came from its view of him as a patriotic and centrist figure who will not stab the resistance in the back.
Frangieh can gain quorum at a parliamentary session, is not sectarian in his discourse, and can engage with Arab and other foreign allies, Mousavi said.
Frangieh, whose grandfather served as president from 1970 into Lebanons civil war, is heir to an old Lebanese Christian political dynasty and a friend of Syrias al-Assad.
As a Hezbollah ally, he was close to becoming president in 2016 before the group ultimately backed Aoun another of its Christian allies. Aouns party, the Free Patriotic Movement, which is headed by his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, has a 19-member bloc in parliament that has rejected Frangieh.
Mousavi rejected the possibility that the Saudi-Iran deal could change Hezbollahs choice of a candidate, adding the group would not give in to foreign pressures that aim to influence that choice.
Hezbollahs support for Frangieh will continue until the end. The only way thatll change is if he withdraws from the race, Mousavi told Al Jazeera.
He added the delay so far has been to Frangiehs benefit, as the Saudi-Iran deal and dialogue between Syria and other Arab states will ultimately pour in his favour.
Mohanad Hage Ali, an expert on Lebanon and senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, agreed that the deal was unlikely to change Hezbollahs position on Frangieh, as conceding to an opposition candidate would compromise the groups regional interests.
Any other candidate would be too risky and could replicate the Michel Sleiman experience, in which the president became vocal in his rejection of Hezbollahs involvement in Syria [and] pushed for a defence strategy to transition control over the use of the organisations arsenal into the armys command, said Ali.
Sleiman, who was Lebanons president from 2008 and 2014, became increasingly opposed to Hezbollahs involvement in support of al-Assad during the Syrian war, saying it polarised the public and put Lebanon on the verge of civil war.
I fail to see a scenario where Hezbollah would agree to a middle-ground candidate, relinquishing its control over one-third of the government, said Ali.
Hezbollah fighters put Lebanese and Hezbollah flags at Juroud Arsal, Syria-Lebanon border [file: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters]
Vehement rejection
While Hezbollahs position appeared to be unwavering, opposition to their candidate has been intense among parliamentary members who participated in a popular anti-establishment movement and protests that have rocked the country since 2019.
Ibrahim Mneimneh, from the Forces of Change parliamentary bloc, insisted it is time for Lebanon to choose a new president based on dialogue among all political forces, rather than through a traditional process monopolised by sectarian political groups.
Before Aouns te
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 7:19 am