Cross-currents in the Islamic world (Column: The Third Eye)
Print
In recent years the international scene has been conditioned by new geopolitical trends that were affecting all regions particularly West Asia, Indo-Pacific and Eurasia. India now a major power influencing global events, had particular stakes in these parts of the world.
The post-Cold War years in which the US-led unipolar order prevailed for quite some time, the fall-out of the war on terror that essentially turned out to be prolonged combat between the US-led West and the Islamic radicals and the reappearance more recently, of the polarisation between US on one hand and the China-Russia axis, on the other following the Ukraine-Russia military confrontation have been the major developments that are shaping the current geopolitics.
India is required to keep close track of the changing alignments within the so-called Islamic world more so in West Asia. This country has more Muslims than what their number was in Pakistan the entity created through the partition of India on religious grounds in 1947.
Independent India maintained cordial relations with the Arab world particularly the Gulf countries regardless of the fact that Indo-Pak relations had turned sour on multiple counts. We have to have a deep understanding of the cross currents in West Asia in order to maintain and strengthen Indias friendships in the region in the future.
From Indias point of view Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran are the three Muslim countries that hold the key to West Asias stability and friendly disposition towards this nation. It is a matter of deep satisfaction for the country that Ajit Doval, Indias National Security Advisor has directly reached out to Iran and Saudi Arabia and struck an equation with them in a manner that allows India to build bilateral economic relations with them and also make a contribution as a common friend, to the alleviation of political and ideological conflict existing between them for a long time.
It is to be noted that Doval has established an NSA grid with all major powers in todays world, international relations are steered at that level for the simple reason that the nations security and economic concerns are best evaluated there.
Foreign policy by definition is the product of these twin concerns and it is no surprise therefore that implementation of the policy framework defined largely at the level of NSAs is becoming a major function of diplomacy.
Diplomacys inputs for policy formulation remain of course important like before. The three pivotal countries of the West Asia-North Africa(WANA) region mentioned above, are the principal witnesses of the cross-currents flowing through the Islamic world for some time now and it is important for India to embrace them in friendship.
Saudi Arabia chairing the powerful Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) the 57-member block of Muslim countries had traditionally had an equation of friendship with the US run on an extremely strict framework of fundamentalist Islam, the Saudi regime has, through the OIC platform, endorsed the idea of Muslims all over the world is regarded as Ummah and justified the logic of this forum voicing concern over any problem that the Muslim community might be facing anywhere.
Pakistan a key member of OIC, had with its large army lent military support to Saudi Arabia for the latters security and that could be one reason why Pakistan was able to get OIC to raise the issue of abrogation of Article 370 relating to Kashmir, by the Indian Parliament. It is also, however, true that the Saudi kingdom while being aware of Indo-Pak conflicts, has moved towards establishing a deep bilateral friendship with India under the Narendra Modi regime.
A significant development impacting Saudi Arabias approach to international relations was the rise of Islamic radicals in the Muslim world in the wake of the US-led war on terror launched first in Afghanistan and then in the Iraq-Syria belt. This made Saudi Arabia more vulnerable to attacks from radicals because of the countrys known alliance with the US.
The return of the Taliban Emirate in Kabul in 2019, the failure of US-backed Islamists to oust the Assad regime in Syria and the growing importance of China in the region on account of the Sino-Pak axis an adjustment was already worked out by Pakistan between Taliban-dominated Afghanistan and China are the major recent developments shaping the West Asian scene.
A powerful voice in OIC has been taking the line that Islamic radical groups should not be rejected just because they were ideologically opposed to the US-led West.
Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Yemen and Qatar had an attitude of acceptance towards radicals whose mandate of return to the puritan Islam of the golden period of the first four Caliphs, had an inherent appeal to all those faithful. Also, US administrations have risen above the ill-conceived logic of good terrorists vs bad terrorists that was based on a distinction between Islamic extremists who remained on the right side of the US and the radicals of Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS who looked upon the US as their prime enemy.
It was perhaps realised that both these groups could foster faith-based terrorism that was a huge danger to the democratic world led by the US.
US President Donald Trump who denounced his rival, Hillary Clinton, in the election campaign for not criticising violence in the name of Islam out of her concern for remaining politically correct, told the Arab countries in Riyadh in 2017 that they should sort out their sectoral problems with others in the Muslim world, on their own.
The successor Biden administration has also been circumspect about supporting Islamic fundamentalist regimes. There is a realisation in the Saudi camp that violence in the name of religion by invoking Jehad, can not be upheld in present times.
Saudi Arabia and its close partner UAE, have also made the balancing move of not getting caught in the emerging Cold War kind of polarisation between the US on one hand and the China-Russia combine on the other in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia military confrontation.
Egypt with its long civilisational history has a key position in the Arab world and has been the largest trading partner of India in Africa. It is home to the Muslim Brotherhood founded by the Egyptian thinker Hasan Al Banna in 1928 to oppose the nationalist and pro-left regime of Gen. Nasser and establish an Islamic rule based on the mandate that the Quran is the best Constitution.
Following the Arab Spring of 2011 that compelled the military to depose President Hosni Mubarak, and a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood Mohammad Morsi became the first elected President of Egypt in 2012. The Arab Spring was fronted by liberals but its real strength came from Muslim Brotherhood known for its large organisation and influence.
As Muslim Brotherhood started exercising an overbearing influence on all facets of governance including the judiciary and even armed forces, the military in a counter-revolution in
Sunday, May 28, 2023 at 5:40 am