Covid 19: Is it possible that XBB 1.16 unknowingly paves way for a new COVID wave?, Health News, ET HealthWorld
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Is it possible that XBB 1.16 unknowingly paves way for a new COVID wave?
ETHealthworld spoke exclusively with the top experts in the country to understand the factors contributing to the ongoing rise in COVID-19 cases across the country, especially in states such as Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Karnataka. Experts opined on a series of issues focusing on the current scenario, including the much-talked-about XBB. 1.16 has the potential to invite another COVID wave, and whether influenza can act as a catalyst will give birth to uncertainty among the states already warned by the Center over the proliferation of positive cases. The last time that peak occurred was when the Omicron BF.7 variant was detected in December 2022.
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By Prathiba Raju and Abhishek Bhatia
New Delhi: As India is witnessing a rise in COVID-19 cases, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) has revised guidelines for the public to effectively tackle and manage the disease. The country had crossed over 1,000 positive SARS-CoV-2 cases on Sunday after almost four and a half months.
The last time that peak occurred was when the Omicron BF.7 variant was detected in December 2022. According to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortia (INSACOG), the XBB.1.16 variant and highly transmissible sub-lineages formed from a combination of the Omicron sub-variants BA2.75 and BA2 are the most prevalent strains in central India. Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) Dr Bharati Prawin Pawar, recently informed Rajya Sabha, that Omicron and its sublineages still dominate the SARS-CoV-2 spread across the country.
ETHealthworld spoke exclusively with the top scientific minds in the country to understand the factors contributing to the ongoing rise in COVID-19 cases across the country, especially in states such as Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Karnataka. Experts opined on a series of issues focusing on the current scenario, including the much-talked-about XBB. 1.16 has the potential to invite another COVID wave, and whether influenza can act as a catalyst will give birth to uncertainty among the states already warned by the Center over the proliferation of positive cases.
For the last few days, Max Hospital has started seeing some COVID positive cases. As per Dr Sandeep Budhiraja, Group Medical Director, Max Healthcare, and Senior Director, Institute of Internal Medicine, most of these patients are in outpatient clinics and have symptoms no different from the seasonal flu. Dr Budhiraja explained that the patients are essentially complaining of fever, headache, body aches, cough and cold, and some abdominal discomfort, and most of these symptoms are attributed to the seasonal flu.
ETHealthworld spoke to Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former Head Scientist of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Explaining the situation in clear terms, Dr Gangakhedkar said due to persistent fever and the resemblance of influenza symptoms with COVID-19, people are coming forward to get themselves tested, which earlier wasnt the case due to hesitancy and self-testing. With this, the numbers are likely to increase because the governments earlier werent able to capture the endemic infection.
Could XBB 1.16 invite another wave?
Scientists believe that a fast-spreading XBB.1 descendant, XBB.1.16, could be behind the recent surge in COVID cases in India. Dr Rajib Dasgupta, Head, Centre for Social Medicine and Community Health, JNU, affirmed that, as is now reasonably well known, the COVID XBB 1.16 variant seems to be fueling the surge.
XBB 1.16 has so far not caused any mortality in India. XBB.1.5 had earlier been declared a variant of interest (VOI) by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Gujarat is the state that has seen the sharpest rise in COVID-19 infection cases. The Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre (GBRC) sequenced the genomes of the most recent 50 confirmed COVID cases, and they found that 37, or 74 per cent, of these samples, belonged to the XBB.1 branch.
"Like COVID-19, influenza (H3N2 currently) also causes complications and potential mortality among the elderly and those with severe comorbidities and immunodeficient states. It is somewhat early to speculate on how fast XBB 1.16 will spread or whether it will cause excess complications and mortality. Most of the XBB-related mortality in the UK has been among the elderly so far, many in care home settings," Dr Dasgupta continued.
Dr Gangakhedkar said there is no reason to believe that there is data that says XBB 1.16 is a variant of concern. People's health-seeking behavior plays a major role in the increment in reported numbers of a particular variant, and therefore, the concern should be focused more on surveillance. "We have to look at COVID-19, but we have also got to remember that this infection is now endemic. Unless we find a variant that is cause for concern, which is far away when it comes to comparison with the Omicron variants, we may not worry. Variants are anyway going to come because the virus keeps on mutating."
"The situation demands that we be very careful and cautious," said Dr Budhiraja adding that the government, at its level, needs to ramp up the testing of people, including genomic surveillance that is important to identify the variant.
COVID cases: Are we heading back to square one?
Dr Ambarish Joshi, Sr Consultant, Pulmonary and Sleep Medicine, Primus Super Speciality Hospital, agreed that the rising COVID-19 cases regularly are a cause for concern. Usually, it starts like this and can have devastating consequences. The pulmonary expert added that we are on the edge, where ignorance can lead to another pandemic.
"After receiving the vaccination doses, people are not following basic safety norms to maintain hygiene and wear masks in crowds. Also, many of them have not taken the booster dose, which has made it more difficult to suppress the remaining effects of the virus. It is not over yet, and we should get back to maintaining social distance as well as safety measures," said Dr Joshi.
H3N2 is in the news, and people who have symptoms are getting their tests done, and nowadays many of these panels have tests for these respiratory viruses and COVID, so they are getting detected as COVID-positive as well. Many people are relying on home antigen tests; Dr Budhiraja indicated that, in addition, most of these cases are mild and can be managed at home with just a simple symptomatic treatment.
Highlighting that we do have some cases coming to the hospital with lower respiratory infections, and these come with mixed infections, more so with H3N2, and very few COVID admissions, Dr Budhiraja said, "These are generally people with multiple medical co-morbidities, elderly patients, d
Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 7:17 am