Can Netflix Still Become a $1 Trillion Company by 2030?

Published: Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 11:50 am

Netflix's $1 Trillion Valuation: Still Possible?

Netflix executives laid out an ambitious plan last year to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2030. The company's strategy hinges on significant revenue growth, driven primarily by its subscription model. The goal is to double its 2024 revenue of $39 billion by 2030, including $9 billion in global ad sales. This would also involve increasing operating income from $10 billion to $30 billion, implying an operating margin of 38.5%.

The company's performance in 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing 16% and the operating margin expanding to 29.5%. Advertising revenue more than doubled, reaching over $1.5 billion, and subscriber count surpassed 325 million. However, the outlook for 2026 has caused investor concern, leading to a decline in the stock price.

The slowdown in revenue growth is attributed to factors unlikely to be repeated in 2026. These include the weakening dollar in international markets, which boosted revenue, and price increases in key markets like the U.S. and Canada. The primary drivers for 2026 revenue growth will be advertising and international subscriber growth. Management anticipates advertising revenue to double this year, reaching $3 billion. Despite the expected slowdown, the company remains on track to meet its 2030 goals, requiring only 11% annual revenue growth and consistent margin expansion.

A significant factor impacting the company's financial future is the planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. This $83 billion deal will require Netflix to take on substantial debt, potentially increasing interest expenses for several years. The acquisition also presents execution risks, and its impact on Netflix's operations is uncertain.

The ultimate challenge for Netflix is whether the market will be willing to pay a high multiple of earnings for the company to reach its $1 trillion valuation.

BNN's Perspective:

While Netflix's long-term goals are ambitious, the company's recent performance and strategic moves suggest a mixed outlook. The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery presents both opportunities and risks. The company's ability to navigate the debt burden and integrate the new assets will be crucial. The market's willingness to value Netflix at the desired level remains a key factor, and investors should carefully consider the potential impact of these developments.

Keywords: Netflix, NFLX, valuation, revenue, advertising, subscribers, Warner Bros. Discovery, acquisition, operating margin, stock price, financial goals, market cap, growth, investment, earnings, debt

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