Breitbart Business Digest: The Tariff Inflation Scare Is Dead

Published: Wednesday, October 22, 2025 at 10:50 pm

Tariff Inflation Fears Debunked by New Data

Washington, D.C. - Recent data from the Harvard Tariff Price Tracker challenges the narrative that tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have fueled inflation. The tracker, developed by Harvard economists, analyzes real-time online prices to assess the impact of tariffs on various goods. The findings indicate that the anticipated inflationary effects of the tariffs have failed to materialize.

The study categorizes goods into three groups: imported goods directly affected by tariffs, domestic goods in tariff-targeted product codes or categories where imports dominate, and domestic goods largely unaffected by trade. The data, spanning a year since the tracker's inception in early October 2024, reveals that year-over-year inflation from tariffs is essentially zero.

Specifically, imported goods in tariffed categories rose by only 2% by October 12, 2025, closely aligning with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, domestic goods in tariff-affected categories actually decreased by 0.2% below their starting point. Domestic goods untouched by tariffs saw a 1.4% increase.

The analysis also examined the period surrounding the announcement of the tariff package on April 2, 2025. Since then, import prices in tariffed categories have risen modestly, while domestic goods in tariff-affected categories have fallen. This suggests that competitive pressures, rather than tariff protection, are influencing domestic pricing decisions.

The study notes a brief period of price increases before April, potentially linked to the initial tariff announcements and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. However, the post-April data shows a clear shift, with the market largely absorbing the initial shock of the tariffs.

The data suggests that domestic producers, rather than raising prices due to reduced foreign competition, have either held prices steady or lowered them. The categories most affected by tariffs show the least inflation.

BNN's Perspective:

While the data presented offers a compelling argument against the immediate inflationary impact of tariffs, it's crucial to acknowledge the complexities of economic policy. The study's findings are a valuable contribution to the ongoing debate, but the long-term effects of tariffs on trade relationships and overall economic growth warrant continued monitoring.

Keywords: tariffs, inflation, Harvard Tariff Price Tracker, Trump administration, import prices, domestic goods, Federal Reserve, economic data, price increases, consumer prices

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