UFC Vegas 60 preview: Can Aspen Ladd rediscover herself?
Aspen Ladd punching Raquel Pennington at UFC 273 | Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC Get the scoop on the preliminary action out of UFC Vegas 60, featuring former womens bantamweight darling Aspen Ladd looking to right her ship against former Olympic wrestler, Sara McMann. Im a bit down on the UFCs event this weekend, but not for the reason you might think. While I admit it isnt the deepest card, it does have some very well made fights that have me second guessing my picks plenty. No, Im bummed about this card returning the action to the Apex; this card isnt being held in front of a wide audience. Just like the fans, fighters have been anxious to be in front of crowds and their performances have indicated that. Its hardly a guarantee that the fights wont be as good, but following the recent trends indicates it isnt follish to expect that. Aspen Ladd vs. Sara McMann, Womens Bantamweight At first glance, it would appear the decline of Ladd came about quite suddenly. Looking deeper into the matter, its clear it was far more gradual. Ladds 16 second loss to Germaine de Randamie appears to have cracked her confidence. Completely blowing out her knee shattered it. The fact the knee injury put a total of 22 months in between fights is what is deceptive in making it appear her descent has come rapidly. At 27, shes still young enough that she should be able to rebound, but thats also far from a guarantee. Hell, that isnt even referencing her history of disastrous weight cuts. In Ladds last two contests, she has been reluctant to shoot for takedowns, a surprise given her grappling and GnP are considered to be her biggest strengths. Is it due to her knee? Her movement has been janky, but that isnt necessarily a surprise as she has never exhibited great movement. She hasnt gone for enough takedowns for me to feel comfortable saying she has lost explosion in her shots. Its plausible to say its likely, but its also plausible to say its a matter of confidence. Regardless, if she is going to return to her ground roots, shes picking a hell of an opponent to do so given McMann is a former Olympic silver medalist. Granted, McCann hasnt been very effective at stopping the takedowns of her opponents, but itll be hard to take McCann down if she puts Ladd on her back first. McCann has improved her ability to get and hold her opponents down, having heavily hit the grappling circuit to brush up on her defensive holes. That, despite her now being 41. Thats a testament to McManns work ethic as she could rest on her laurels. Much like Ladd, McManns GnP is probably her strongest aspect. Even if McMann has brushed up her grappling, theres still concerns about her stamina, perhaps allowing her opponents find her back or transition into the top position for a submission late in the fight. Shes still a fish out of water if she finds herself on her back, no surprise given she came up a wrestler. Part of it is also due to McMann being stiff in her movement. Shes a powerful athlete, but not a particularly fluid one, the biggest reason why she has been limited in her powerful striking. Even with her knee issues, Ladd is the more fluid striker, which could ultimately be the factor that leads to her securing a victory. Plus, McMann could fall off a cliff at any time given her age. Even with that said, Ladd hasnt been spectacular at preventing takedowns, nor has she been the most active striker. Theres a good chance shell have to put McMann away... and doing that with strikes is a tall order. Its a tough contest to pick, but not knowing if Ladd has made any serious changes, Ive got to go with McMann. McMann via decision One of the more underrated up-and-comers in the organization, Pat Sabatini has been mowing his opponents down with minimal resistance. The issue has been the UFCs reluctance to give him a decent step up in competition. The funny thing is, his opponent, Damon Jackson, has had an equally difficult time securing an opponent ahead of him on the ladder. In that sense, I suppose it makes sense to pit them against one another. Jackson is a major risk taker. Given he is a minus athlete, it makes sense that he would have to. However, its not like hes a reckless with his risks. Jackson is calculated about when to launch a bevy of punches at his opponent or go for a submission without having the proper positioning. Sabatini is far more about the nuts and bolts of the sport. In fact, hes all about minimizing risk, securing takedowns and smothering his opponents on the mat. That isnt to say he wont expose a hole if his opponent provides him one, but much like Jackson, Sabatini isnt anything special in terms of his physical tools, meaning its difficult for him to be too creative. Given Jackson relies on opponents to make mistakes or even just gas out hes going to have a hard time exposing Sabatini. Throw in the fact that Jackson struggled with a short notice opponent who typically fights at bantamweight and theres signs he could be slowing. I think Sabatini can do just enough with the holes Jackson exposes to get a very close decision. Sabatini via decision After his older brother Orion fell in his UFC debut, only to rebound in his sophomore effort, Louis Cosce is hoping to follow in his footsteps. Louis is damn near a carbon copy of his brother, squat for welterweight, bout possessing explosive power in both his punches and his takedowns. However, he was also heavily reliant on his physical skills on the regional scene, running over questionable competition with minimal attention to technique. Thats what led to his downfall in his debut, swinging wildly and gassing himself before succumbing more to exhaustion than anything else. Trevin Giles has his own issues, but cardio isnt one of them. The streaky Giles has suffered from mental miscues more than anything, having given away fights due to his foolhardiness. When hes right, Giles is a solid athlete with a fantastic jab and reasonable wrestling. The anticipation is that his wrestling should improve now that hes making welterweight his home, but that is also with the idea the weight cut goes well. Giles did look alright in his debut there, but its fair to question if dehydration is going to be an issue given he was KOd in his first fight there. Given Cosces power, there is reason to pause in selecting Giles to win, but he is the more measured and all-around talented fighter. Giles via TKO of RD3 Given recency bias is a very real thing, I got a feeling many are going to be jumping on the Denise Gomes train... at least for this contest. The pint-sized Brazilian had an impressive showing on DWCS, nearly doubling up the output of her opponent and doing so in an entertaining fashion. At 22, she has her best days well ahead of her too. However, she shouldnt be sleeping on Loma Lookboonmee. Lookboonmee is one of the more technical strikers on the roster, much less the division. A heavily decorated Muay Thai practitioner before crossing over to MMA, is even smaller than Gomes. However, Lookboonmee is used to being the smaller fighter and has faced a higher level of competition than Gomes. Given Lookboonmees biggest issue thus far has been stopping takedowns, Gomes hasnt shown signs of being a threat to take the fight to the ground on the regular. Perhaps most worrisome is Gomes making the cut back to 115 so quickly. She isnt big for the division, but back-to-back cuts can be debilitating, especially if she has yet to perfect the science. Throw in that Gomes likes to brawl and I see the clean striking of Lookboonmee having a field day in what should be a fun fight. Lookboonmee via decision The opinions on Daniel Zellhuber are a bit of a mixed bag. Not that anyone is unhappy with his having a spot on the roster, hes a sound enough prospect that he deserves a shot. Some think he has a high ceiling, others think he could wash out within a few years. Given his youth and questionable competition, its a fair question. Hes got the size, length, and a varied attack to be a major problem. The question is whether his defense and overall technique has tightened up. Trey Ogden is the perfect test to figure out where Zellhuber is at. Ogden doesnt have any special physical qualities, but hes at least adequate in all areas of the fight game. Where Ogden is at his best is capitalizing on mistakes made in the grappling department, having secured 11 submission victories over the course of his career. Hes also proven difficult to put away, meaning a quick finish for Zellhuber seems unlikely. I likely wouldnt put money on it, but Ill go with youth in this contest given Ogden couldnt beat Jordan Leavitt in a contest that was spent largely on the feet. Zellhuber via decision The best way to describe the inconsistency of Mariya Agapova is to use a basketball analogy. One night shes going to throw down 30 points, hitting everything she throws up. The next night, shes going to brick everything and score 2 points in the same amount of time allotted in the other game. Agapova is talented as hell, but has struggled mightily with her fight IQ. If it werent for her mental gaffes, picking her would be a near unanimous pick against Gillian Robertson. Not that Robertson is without talent, but she lacks the explosiveness of Agapova and is incredibly stiff on the feet. Credit to Robertson in that she has worked hard to improve her striking and is reasonably technical, but the results havent borne fruit. Regardless, Agapovas tendency to leave gaping holes in her defense is something I cant get out of my head, particularly in her grappling. To be fair, much of that is attributed to Agapova draining her gas tank with her reckless attack early on, leaving her exhausted after just one round. Robertson is tough, but shell have to weather an early storm before Id expect her to get an opportunity to catch Agapova in something compromising. I like her chances of doing that. Agapova via submission of RD2 Opinions are very split on Tony Gravely. Both sides are understandable. Gravely has always been a relentless wrestler with power in his fists that hes begun to tap in recent fights. However, at 31 with 30 professional fights under his belt, its hard to believe theres a lot of room left in his ceiling for him to grow, especially given there hasnt been any definitive proof he has found a permanent fix for his stamina issues. That is going to be an issue against Javid Basharat as the Afghani fighter hasnt shown any problems going the distance while pushing an admirable pace. Of course, Basharat isnt initiating the wrestling in the manner Gravely typically does, relying on a very technical brand of striking. Basharat doesnt have the wrestling chops of Gravely, nor does he have the natural power of Gravely, but it isnt hard to see him picking apart Gravely... when he can keep the fight standing. Its a difficult contest to pick. If you favor talent, pick Gravely. If you favor fight IQ, Basharat is the better pick. Given Gravely appears to be improving his fight IQ, Ill lean in his direction. Gravely via decision Its a mystery how Cameron VanCamp is going to make the lightweight limit. Yes, I understand he has made it before, but that was over four years ago when VanCamp was in his mid-20s. Now 29, VanCamp has been fighting consistently at 170 since that time. Its going to be a hell of a chore for him to mold his body back into being conducive to fight at 155. If he can, hes a slick submission artist with a decent chin, despite having been finished in his UFC debut by Andre Fialho. Of course, Nikolas Motta has proven capable of cracking a chin. The Brazilian striker is too technical a striker to be labeled purely a brawler, but he doesnt mind when all hell breaks loose. Not that he cant be disposed of as his chin can be cracked, but his athleticism usually allows him to find his opponents chin first. If thats the fight we get, he should be a strong favorite. If VanCamp is able to wrest Motta to the ground, theres a good chance he can secure an upset. Mottas takedown defense has been a question mark in the past. That said, I still favor the more athletic fighter to find a win. Motta via decision
Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 2:00 pm