Chinas growth stumbles in July as retail sales, industrial output miss forecasts

Published: Friday, August 15, 2025 at 2:33 am

China's Economic Growth Slows in July, Raising Concerns

China's economic expansion lost steam in July, with key indicators falling short of expectations, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-over-year, significantly below the anticipated 4.6% and down from June's 4.8%. Industrial output also weakened, rising 5.7% in July, the lowest level since November of the previous year, and below the expected 5.9%.

Fixed-asset investment growth also decelerated, expanding by 1.6% for the year-to-date, falling short of the 2.7% forecast. Within this sector, property investment continued to decline, dropping 12% in the first seven months.

The urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.2% in July, after holding steady at 5% in the preceding two months. The unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding college students, has remained above 14% for a year.

Economists attribute the slowdown to the fading impact of earlier government stimulus measures and pre-emptive trade activities that boosted growth in the first half of the year. While China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half, putting it on track to meet its annual growth target of 5%, analysts are expressing concerns that the full-year target may be missed, and are calling for further policy support in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the United States and China have agreed to extend a pause on tariffs for 90 days, until mid-November, providing more time for negotiations. However, core disagreements, including those related to technology access, critical minerals, industrial policy, and geopolitical alignments, remain unresolved.

BNN's Perspective: The recent economic data from China paints a mixed picture. While the country's economy is still growing, the slowdown in key sectors is concerning. The government will need to carefully balance its economic goals with the ongoing challenges of weak domestic demand and unresolved trade disputes. The extension of the tariff pause offers a window for further negotiations, but the underlying issues need to be addressed to ensure sustainable growth.

Keywords: China economy, retail sales, industrial output, fixed-asset investment, unemployment rate, economic growth, trade, tariffs, economic slowdown, Beijing, economic data

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